Executive summary:
TRANSCEND seeks to establish a comprehensive Socio-Ecological Systems (SES) modeling suite, empowering stakeholders to explore, assess, and navigate trade-offs among various Transformational Adaptation Policies. These models play a crucial role in simulating the intricate connections and feedback loops between human societies and the natural environment. Specific to TRANSCEND, SES models provide for a comprehensive understanding of the complexities surrounding climate change adaptation strategies, equipping governments, policymakers, stakeholders and communities with valuable insights to develop effective adaptation plans. SES models enable the simulation of different interventions, such as climate-resilient water resources management, sustainable agriculture and land-use practices, and nature-based adaptation approaches.
To explore and comprehend future climate and socioeconomic conditions, two essential sets of coupled climate change scenarios are widely employed: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). These scenarios serve as indispensable tools to assess potential trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, climate change and socioeconomic development. Integrating SSP-RCPs with SES models, however, poses challenges due to issues of scale, uncertainty, and feedbacks to the large-scale climate system. This white paper aims to highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with employing SES models in conjunction with SSP-RCPs, fostering a deeper understanding of the intricate interactions between human societies, ecosystems and the global climate system. To best utilize scenario data, specific recommendations for each lab are presented, considering the current state of the model systems in each lab.
Each of the 7 TRANSCEND labs appears to have made substantial progress in their model systems, already addressing climate change impacts and implications for sustainable development, environmental management, and climate change adaptation. In some cases, refining the modeling framework and the data used to force the models may be necessary to better assess these impacts. Integrating socioeconomic data consistent with climate change projections is also critical and should be done. Additionally, considering Global Warming Levels can inform society and policymakers about the implications of complying with the Paris Agreement. A second round of workshops is already planned to address these crucial aspects, ensuring a more comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation and policy formulation.